Migration figures fall sharply as Burnham signals shift on key policies

Andy Burnham has acknowledged that net migration in the UK “needs to fall further”, despite government figures revealing the figure has declined by approximately 50% since 2024. The Greater Manchester mayor and Labour’s by-election candidate in Makerfield made the comments after the ONS reported on Thursday that migration added 171,000 people to the UK’s population in the past year — the smallest figure since 2012, excluding the Covid pandemic. Burnham said constituents have “expressed concerns regarding immigration” with him on the doorstep, and whilst he backs the “general direction” of Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s suggested reforms to make it harder for migrants to establish permanent residence, he stressed the government must “strike the right balance” on the disputed policy.

Net migration hits lowest point in over ten years

The latest ONS data marks a significant shift in the UK’s immigration direction. The number of 171,000 represents the smallest yearly net migration figures since 2012, a sharp turnaround from the peak levels seen in recent years. This substantial decline demonstrates the authorities’ concerted efforts to strengthen immigration policy and lower overall population inflow through tougher visa conditions and enforcement measures.

The progress has not gone unnoticed by senior Labour figures, who regard the data as proof that their migration approach is producing concrete results. However, officials have warned that further reductions are required to achieve their long-term objectives. The Interior Ministry has warned that without additional policy changes, approximately 1.6 million people could obtain lasting residency between 2026 and 2030, driving the administration’s drive for stricter residency requirements.

• Net migration fell from record highs to lowest level since 2012
• 171,000 people contributed to UK population through net migration last year
• Government intends to make permanent settlement considerably more difficult for migrants
• Home Office projects 1.6m potential settlers without policy intervention

Settlement rules face a major overhaul amid ongoing political discussion

The government’s initiatives to make stricter residency requirements have generated considerable debate within Labour’s membership, with a number of high-ranking officials openly challenging the backward-looking character of the planned amendments. Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner has been particularly vocal in her opposition, labelling the policy as “un-British” and charged the government of “moving the goalposts” on migrants who have already begun building lives in the UK. These concerns underscore deep divisions within the party over how to balance controlling immigration with fairness and humanitarian concerns.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has justified the proposals as essential and equitable, maintaining they are crucial to prevent what she describes as a “drain on our public finances”. She has stressed that the changes are measured approaches to forecasted population numbers that could reach 1.6 million people between 2026 and 2030 without measures. The engagement exercise on these disputed plans will be vital in establishing whether the government can find a middle ground that satisfies both hardliners and those worried by the social effects of stricter rules.

What these proposed changes entail

Settlement, officially termed indefinite leave to remain, provides individuals the ability to reside, work and pursue education in the UK permanently, whilst also allowing them to access certain state benefits if eligible. The government’s proposed changes would make it substantially harder for migrants to attain this position, effectively restricting long-term residency opportunities. This represents a major change in approach aimed at manage demographic expansion and reduce forecast settlement figures considerably over the following years.

• Settlement grants permanent right to work and reside in UK
• Proposed changes would make permanent residency considerably more difficult to obtain
• Policy aims to reduce 1.6m projected settlements between 2026-2030

Burnham shifts position on contentious social issues

Andy Burnham has indicated a marked shift in his position on single-sex spaces, recognising that his thinking has developed following the Equalities and Human Rights Commission’s new guidance on the matter. The Mayor of Greater Manchester said to the BBC on Friday that he now endorses the Supreme Court decision defining a woman under the Equality Act as determined by biological sex, saying it “has to be implemented”. This constitutes a significant shift from his previous stance, when he suggested that worries regarding trans women in women’s toilets were shared by only a “small minority”.

Burnham stressed, however, that whilst accepting the regulatory structure, the implementation must be managed with sensitivity and compassion. He pointed out that the decision should not become “a kind of victory over other people in society” and cautioned against continuing to marginalise already at-risk communities. His finely balanced position seeks to balance regulatory requirements with broader societal duty, reflecting broader Labour tensions over how to manage increasingly polarised debates around gender and equality issues.

The development of his stance

When pressed on whether his position had changed, Burnham was candid, telling journalists: “I’ll be honest, yes. I’ve followed the debate as it’s gone along over the years.” His admission reflects a willingness to reassess long-held views in light of legislative changes and public consultation, demonstrating the fluidity of political positioning on divisive social issues within the party.

By-election battle heats up in Greater Manchester

Andy Burnham’s comments on social policy and immigration occur as Labour readies for a critical by-election battle in Makerfield, a traditionally safe Labour seat in the Greater Manchester area. The electoral contest, sparked by the departure of incumbent MP Mike Jevons, amounts to a major test of the party’s electoral standing in a core constituency where working-class concerns about immigration and public services have historically dominated local political discourse. Burnham’s preparedness to recognise public anxieties about migration whilst defending the government’s broader approach suggests Labour is acutely aware of the political sensitivities surrounding these issues in previously industrial regions.

The Makerfield contest carries particular symbolic weight, as the constituency has been held by Labour since 1997 and any substantial shift away from the party would send shockwaves through Westminster. Burnham’s prominent campaign efforts in the seat underscores Labour’s determination to hold the line, whilst his shift in approach to key policy areas signals an attempt to address voter concerns directly rather than overlook them. The by-election outcome will provide an early barometer of whether the government’s approach of recognising public sentiment whilst maintaining progressive policies can effectively manage the complex political landscape of contemporary British politics.

• Makerfield held by Labour from 1997 without significant challenge
• Election prompted by incumbent Member of Parliament Mike Jevons’ resignation
• Result will indicate government’s electoral strength in core Labour areas